ISSN: 1046-3410 NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES NO 76 -- March 23, 1993 Editor: Marcia Tuttle CONTENTS 76.1 FROM THE EDITOR, Marcia Tuttle 76.2 STRONGER DOLLAR COULD REVERSE A TREND IN PERIODICAL COSTS FOR NORTH AMERICAN LIBRARIES, EBSCO Subscription Services 76.3 1994 PRELIMINARY SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS (3/93), The Faxon Company 76.4 AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY PUBLISHING PROGRAM, Arleen Somerville 76.1 FROM THE EDITOR Marcia Tuttle, tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu. I have had several messages from subscribers asking for 1994 price projec- tions, and in this issue we have the first two, from EBSCO and Faxon. Our thanks to these two subscription agents for sending their press releases. We will continue to publish pricing projections as we receive them. 76.2 STRONGER DOLLAR COULD REVERSE A TREND IN PERIODICAL COSTS FOR NORTH AMERICAN LIBRARIES Press release from EBSCO Subscription Services received March 22, 1993. Birmingham, Ala.--Although European and U.S. publishers have indicated they will increase subscription prices by about 10.5 percent for 1994, strong U.S. and Canadian dollars could offset a portion of that increase for Euro- pean titles subscribed to by North American libraries. Since last November, when most publishers were paid for 1993 subscriptions, the U.S. dollar has gained about 6 percent against a composite mix of major European currencies (British pound, Dutch guilder, French franc, German mark and Swiss franc) and the Canadian dollar has gained about 3 percent. If the dollars hold their current level against these currencies, U.S. libraries could pay only about 4.5 percent more for European publications than they did last year and Canadian libraries would pay 7.5 percent more. This could mark a break in the double digit increases North American libraries have been absorbing. However, EBSCO Subscription Services Division General Manager F. Dixon Brooke Jr. recommends libraries take a cautious approach and budget for the basic publisher price increase of 10.5 percent. "If a U.S. librarian wanted to be optimistic and count on the continued strength of the dollar, they could budget for a 3 to 5.5 percent increase in the cost of non-U.S. ti- tles. This would be a 10.5 percent price increase, partially offset by the improvement in the value of the dollar since November 1992. However, pro- jecting currency situations is dangerous, as many unforeseen and unpredict- able events may affect exchange rates between now and this fall." The un- predictability of exchange rates is evident in the strong fluctuations in both the U.S. and Canadian dollars' values last year. Another yet undetermined variable is that of fixed exchange rates set by some European publishers in late summer or early fall. Last year these rates were fixed at a time when U.S. and Canadian dollars were especially weak against European currencies. Improvements in the dollars' strengths that occurred between then and November could not be taken advantage of by libraries ordering titles for which exchange rates had been fixed. The U.S. dollar's current (early March) value is about 10 percent higher than it was when publishers set fixed exchange rates for most European currencies last year; about 25 percent higher than it was for the rates set for the British pound. Therefore, if publishers were to set fixed rates now, most U.S. libraries would realize no price increase for European journals and would see a price reduction for British journals. However, as mentioned above, publishers will not set fixed exchange rates until several months from now. EBSCO will continue to provide updated projections and exchange rate analy- ses throughout the spring and summer. [The press release goes on to provide historical pricing data for various types of libraries, 1989-1993.] 76.3 1994 PRELIMINARY SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS (3/93) Press release from The Faxon Company. Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, world econom- ic conditions, and current and projected values of the U.S. dollar, Faxon is projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for 1994 subscriptions. Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current conditions and are subject to change as the year progresses. Page Currency Total Inflation Increases Exchange Increase U.S. Published Titles 2.90% 7.00% 0.00% 9.90% Non-U.S. Published Titles 2.70% 7.00% -19.79% -10.09% (Publishers with fixed currency exchange rates) Non-U.S. Published Titles 2.94% 6.50% -13.10% -3.66% (Publishers with variable currency exchange rates) For 1993 subscriptions, price increases for non-U.S. journals were high due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar throughout most of the 1992 ordering season. In late 1992, the U.S. dollar strengthened and is expected to re- main strong throughout 1993. This will mean that the currency effect that increased prices substantially for 1993 subscriptions will have the oppo- site effect in 1994, thereby lowering the prices on non-U.S. journals from their 1993 levels. Libraries in the U.S. A library's projected overall increase would be based on its particular mix of titles. For example, based on these projections, a U.S. library with a 64% U.S. and 36% non-U.S. collection can expect an overall increase in the range of 3 to 5 percent. Libraries with a higher proportion of U.S. titles should expect a somewhat higher rate of increase. Libraries outside the U.S. For libraries outside the U.S., increases will vary depending on the coun- tries and currencies involved, but generally should fall in the range of 10 percent for titles published outside the U.S. and as high as 25 to 30% for titles published in the U.S. because of the stronger U.S. dollar. Calculating the Increase In making its projections, Faxon looks at many factors including consumer price inflation by country for major publishers; paper costs and futures; and postal rates. In addition, we survey publishers on their expectations for page and volume increases and we consult economic and financial ex- perts. As the following [sorry, not able to reproduce. -ed.] charts show our projections have been fairly accurate over the fluctuating conditions of the past several years. Faxon plans to continue to invest substantial time and resources into mak- ing these projections to help you with your planning and budgeting. Over the course of the year, we update our projections based on the status of the U.S. dollar, conversations with financial experts and communications with publishers. So, if you are using our projections, please be sure you have the latest information available. These projections were made in March 1993. 76.4 AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY PUBLISHING PROGRAM Arleen Somerville, Head, Science & Engineering Libraries, University of Rochester, somerville@chem.chem.rochester.edu. [Somerville serves as Associate Member of the ACS Publications Committee. - ed.] Last November (No. 61) you published a contribution from the American Chem- ical Society (ACS) regarding its journal program. That was very helpful and greatly appreciated. I now have an additional packet of information for publication in the Newsletter. There has been an exchange of three letters about ACS journal prices. The first letter from a chemistry professor to the ACS President appeared in the October 27, 1992 (No. 55) Newsletter. Two subsequent letters were sent to Dr. Barth by the ACS President and the Director of ACS' Publications Division. ACS is interested in having these published also. ----- September 28, 1992 Dear Dr. Barth: Thank you for your letter of September 14 which I am bringing to the atten- tion of the chairman of our publications committee and the chairman of our Board of Directors. I should mention to you that larger increases than those actually taking place in 1993 were contemplated and that I personally put up a (successful) fight at the San Francisco meeting to see to it that the price increases to libraries be held to the percentage corresponding to inflation plus added costs due to increases in pages of a number of journals. I quite sympathize with your point of view. I appreciate your writing about this matter. Sincerely yours, Ernest L. Eliel, President American Chemical Society ----- October 21, 1992 Dear Dr. Barth: Ernest Eliel sent me a copy of your September 14, 1992 letter and his Sep- tember 28, 1992 reply about the price of American Chemical Society jour- nals. We certainly understand and appreciate the widespread library budget problem. As you know, the primary mission of ACS as a learned society does include a substantial book, journal, and magazine publishing operation that is an important service to members of ACS and the chemical sciences community. Our goal is to achieve cost-effective dissemination of chemical informa- tion. Unlike our commercial publisher competition whose aim is to maximize their bottom line profit, our mission is to achieve wide circulation while making a small but fair net contribution to the financial reserves of the Society. Our journal prices on a cost per page basis are among the lowest in the publishing business. However, price increases beyond inflation are needed to publish the growing volume of high quality manuscripts submitted and accepted for publication. The total pages published by ACS this year will exceed 100,000. If ACS arbitrarily limited its page budgets to keep prices low, the high quality manuscripts not published by ACS would still be pub- lished in commercial journals at much higher subscription prices with the overall cost to the chemical community much higher. As part of our program to keep subscription prices at affordable levels, we are investing in cost-effective electronic production technology as part of our ongoing program to reduce costs and shorten publication time. We appreciate receiving your comments and will bring your concerns to the attention of the Society Committee on Publications. Sincerely, Robert H. Marks, Director Publications Division American Chemical Society +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Statements of fact and opinion appearing in the _Newsletter on Serials Pricing Issues_ are made on the responsibility of the authors alone, and do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the editorial board, or the Uni- versity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Readers of the NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES are encouraged to share the information in the newsletter by electronic or paper methods. We would appreciate credit if you quote from the newsletter. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES (ISSN: 1046-3410) is published by the editor through the Office of Information Technology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as news is available. Editor: Marcia Tuttle, Internet: tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu; Paper mail: Serials Department, CB #3938 Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC 27599-3938; Telephone: 919 962-1067; FAX: 919 962-0484. Editorial Board: Deana Astle (Clemson University), Jerry Curtis (Springer Verlag New York), Janet Fisher (MIT Press), Charles Hamaker (Louisiana State Universi- ty), Daniel Jones (University of Texas Health Science Center), James Mouw (University of Chicago), and Heather Steele (Blackwell's Periodicals Divi- sion). The Newsletter is available on the Internet and Blackwell's CONNECT. EBSCO and Readmore Academic customers may receive the Newsletter in paper format from these companies. Back issues of the Newsletter are available electronically. To get a list of available issues send a message to LISTSERV@GIBBS.OIT.UNC.EDU saying INDEX PRICES. To retrieve a specific issue, the message should read: GET PRICES PRICES.xx (where "xx" is the number of the issue). To subscribe to the newsletter, send a message to LISTSERV@GIBBS.OIT.UNC.EDU saying SUBSCRIBE PRICES [YOUR NAME]. Be sure to send that message to the listserver and not to Prices. You must include your name. To unsubscribe (no name required in message), you must send the message from the e-mail address by which you are subscribed. If you have problems, please contact the editor. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ *****ENDOFFILE*****ENDOFFILE*****ENDOFFILE*****ENDOFFILE*****ENDOFFILE*****